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Turn on any television in any sports bar in Auckland on a Premier League Saturday, and you will see English football. New Zealand’s relationship with the English game runs deep — deeper, arguably, than with any other football culture on earth. So when I looked at Group L and saw England drawn alongside Croatia, Ghana, and Panama, my first thought was not about the tactical matchups. It was about how many Kiwi punters would be placing bets on this group out of sheer familiarity with the players involved. That familiarity is both an advantage and a trap, and separating the two is what this Group L World Cup 2026 preview is built to do.
The Four Teams
England enter this World Cup carrying the emotional baggage of decades spent as nearly-men. Runners-up at Euro 2020, quarter-finalists in Qatar, finalists at Euro 2024 — the pattern of deep runs without silverware defines this generation. The talent pool is extraordinary: Jude Bellingham has become one of the world’s best midfielders at Real Madrid, Phil Foden drives Manchester City’s attack, and Bukayo Saka provides relentless width from the right. The defensive foundation has shifted since Harry Maguire’s peak years, with younger centre-backs still establishing themselves at international level. England’s greatest strength is their depth across every position — no team in Group L can match their squad from first choice to fifth option. Their greatest weakness is the weight of expectation and a historical tendency to play below their collective talent in tournament football. TAB NZ will price England as heavy Group L favourites, and the question for punters is whether that price offers any value at all.
Croatia are the tournament’s great survivors. A nation of four million people that has reached the World Cup final twice in the last three editions — 2018 and 2022 — defying every demographic model in football. Luka Modrić, now 40, may or may not feature at what would be his fifth World Cup. His status remains a talking point in every preview, but the reality is that Croatia have been preparing for the post-Modrić era since 2022. Lovro Majer has stepped into the creative role with increasing confidence, Mateo Kovačić provides the engine in central midfield, and a generation raised on the technical standards Modrić set have kept Croatia competitive at the highest level. Zlatko Dalić’s system extracts maximum efficiency from limited resources, prioritising ball retention and positional play over the kind of athletic intensity that England and Ghana both rely on. Croatia’s ability to control possession and tempo in big matches is a genuine concern for England — they held 60% possession against Argentina in the 2022 semi-final despite eventually losing. Croatia’s challenge in this group is physical: three matches in ten days against increasingly athletic opponents will test a squad that relies heavily on a core of 12 to 13 players rather than the deep benches England can deploy.
Ghana bring pace, power, and unpredictability in equal measure. West African football has undergone a generational shift since Ghana’s last deep World Cup run in 2010, and the current squad blends European-based professionals with players who chose Ghana over other eligible nations — a recruitment strategy that has broadened the talent pool significantly. The Black Stars’ attacking intent makes them difficult to prepare for: they press high, transition quickly, and carry a genuine goal threat from multiple positions. Defensively, they remain vulnerable to teams that can play through the press, which both England and Croatia are capable of doing. For punters, Ghana are the variable — their results are hard to predict because their performance level fluctuates more than most teams at this tier. That volatility creates betting opportunities in both directions.
Panama return to the World Cup for the second time after their debut in 2018, where they lost all three group matches but scored a memorable goal against England that sent their nation into raptures. The Central American side qualified through a CONCACAF pathway that has grown more competitive with each cycle, and their squad is more experienced and tactically sophisticated than the class of 2018. Panama play a disciplined, compact 5-4-1 out of possession and rely on quick vertical passes to isolate forwards in transition. Their defensive record in CONCACAF qualifying was among the best in the region — they conceded fewer goals than Mexico over the same stretch. They will frustrate opponents, waste time expertly, and make every match ugly if allowed to dictate the tempo. Panama are unlikely to qualify, but they are entirely capable of stealing a point from a complacent opponent — and in a tight group, one stolen point can reshape the entire qualification picture. For punters, Panama’s draw price in their opener against Croatia is worth monitoring: if Croatia underestimate the task, a 0-0 or 1-1 is more plausible than the market suggests.
Match Schedule in NZT
Group L fixtures are concentrated on the US East Coast, which translates to morning and early-afternoon kick-offs in New Zealand. Not the most convenient slots, but workable if you are willing to start your day with football before the office.
| Date (NZT) | Match | Venue | Kick-Off (NZT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 June | England vs Ghana | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia | 9:00am |
| 18 June | Croatia vs Panama | Gillette Stadium, Boston | 3:00pm |
| 24 June | England vs Croatia | AT&T Stadium, Dallas | 9:00am |
| 24 June | Ghana vs Panama | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia | 3:00pm |
| 29 June | England vs Panama | Gillette Stadium, Boston | 1:00pm |
| 29 June | Croatia vs Ghana | AT&T Stadium, Dallas | 1:00pm |
The matchday two clash — England vs Croatia at AT&T Stadium in Dallas — is the fixture of the group and one of the marquee matches of the entire group stage. AT&T Stadium holds over 80,000, the atmosphere will be electric with expat communities from both nations, and the 9am NZT kick-off means you can watch before work if you set the alarm.
Key Matches
I have watched England and Croatia play each other five times in major tournaments since 2018, and every match has delivered a different story. The 2018 World Cup semi-final went to extra time. The Euro 2020 group match was a tense 1-0 to England. The 2022 Nations League meetings split results. What I have learned from tracking these fixtures is that Croatia consistently play better than their pre-match price suggests against England. Modrić or no Modrić, the Croatian midfield’s technical quality disrupts England’s shape, and the match tempo slows to a pace that suits Croatia. If you are looking for the value play in this fixture, it is Croatia draw no bet — they will not be blown away, and a draw is the most likely outcome based on the head-to-head pattern.
England vs Ghana on matchday one carries different dynamics entirely. Ghana’s 2022 World Cup exit — a group-stage elimination after leading Portugal 2-1 before conceding three late goals — left scars that this squad will be determined to heal. England will dominate possession and territory, but Ghana’s pace on the counter presents a live threat, particularly through wide channels where their wing-backs can isolate England’s full-backs one-on-one. England conceded transition goals too often in their Euro 2024 campaign, and Ghana are better equipped to exploit those moments than most Group L opponents. The Philadelphia crowd will lean English, but Ghana’s travelling support and the Ghanaian-American diaspora will ensure the atmosphere is split. Both teams to score at around 2.00 is my lean — England win, but Ghana find the net at least once.
Croatia vs Ghana on the final matchday could become the group’s decisive fixture if results go to form in the first two rounds. A scenario where Croatia need a win to guarantee second place against a Ghana side fighting for survival on goal difference would produce the kind of open, attacking match that live bettors dream about. Neither team plays for a draw when qualification is at stake, and the combined tactical profiles — Croatian possession against Ghanaian pressing — point toward a match with three or more goals.
Group L Odds
TAB NZ pricing for Group L is among the most straightforward in the tournament — and that is precisely why I think there is value to be found in the gaps between perception and reality.
England to win the group at around 1.45 is the kind of odds that looks safe but offers no margin for error. England are probably a 65% chance to finish top, which makes 1.45 a fair price rather than a value one. I would pass. Croatia to win the group around 4.00 is more interesting — they finished above Argentina in their 2022 group and have the tournament pedigree to outperform their ranking. If Modrić features, that price shortens; get it early.
The qualification market is where I focus for Group L. Croatia to qualify at approximately 1.65 is solid multi-leg material — they are nearly certain to advance through second place or as a best third-placed team. Ghana to qualify at around 4.50 requires them to beat Panama and take at least a point off Croatia or England, which is ambitious but not outlandish. For speculative punters, Ghana offer the best risk-reward ratio in this group.
Player markets add another layer. Bellingham as Group L’s top scorer is priced around 3.50 — he scored four goals at Euro 2024 and will be on penalty duty for England. Saka, who has been among the Premier League’s most consistent attackers for three consecutive seasons, offers similar value at slightly longer odds. For Kiwi punters who follow the Premier League week in, week out and know these players inside out, individual performance markets in Group L might be the sharpest edge you have at this entire tournament. You have watched these players perform under pressure for years — now apply that knowledge to World Cup betting lines that odds compilers set based on broader data rather than the granular match-by-match awareness you carry.
Why Kiwis Should Watch Group L
Beyond the Premier League connection — which is reason enough — Group L has structural implications for the All Whites’ knockout path. If New Zealand advance from Group G as a second-placed team, the Round of 32 draw could pair them with the Group L winner. Knowing whether that is a peak-form England or an ageing Croatia changes everything about how you approach that knockout-round market. Early knockout-stage odds are published well before the groups finish, and a savvy punter who has tracked Group L results can identify mispriced lines before the market adjusts.
There is also the punting angle of familiarity. Kiwi bettors watch more English football than any other league, and that translates into a genuine informational edge when assessing player form. You know whether Saka has been carrying a knock for Arsenal, whether Foden has been rotated at City, whether Bellingham’s Champions League workload has left him fatigued. That match-level awareness, applied to Group L markets on TAB NZ, gives you an advantage over the odds compiler who is pricing 104 matches across 48 teams. Use it.
The complete group-by-group breakdown covers the other eleven pools, but for a Kiwi punter with a second screen and a TAB NZ account, Group L is the group you know best — and knowledge, in betting, is the only consistent edge.